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New Product Evaluations / Assessments / Valuation

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Key components of our new product evaluations include:

  1. Peak sales potential

    - Volume, Price, Currency, DTC
    - Peak Market Share (Volume, CU, TRX, $)

  2. 10 Year sales & profit forecasts including NPV, DCF including:

    - Sales
    - COG's
    - Selling Expense
    - Medical Expense
    - Annual & cumulative Product Contribution
    - Annual & cumulative break - even

  3. Identification of value drivers and sensitivity analysis including:

    - Volume
    - Price
    - Peak Penetration,
    - Selling Expense (SF, A&P, Social Media)

  4. Development of the Comparative Performance Profile (CPP) including:

    - Efficacy features, qualities
    - Safety characteristics
    - Dosing, posology
    - First to market, best to market

  5. Determining the "must have" attributes for commercial success

    These "must have" attributes represent a "minimum" set of criteria as a "conditio sine qua non". These product features can refer to efficacy, safety, convenience, cost etc.

  6. Determining the "relative competitiveness" of a product

    The relative competitiveness relates to the final position of the product it will take in the market at "equilibrium".

  7. Identification of "analogue" products & markets

    Analogue products don't necessarily have to be in the same market as the new product. They reflect a set of product and market features as well as dynamics which are expected at the time of launch

  8. Development of decision trees to develop road maps for development plans

    - Decision tree analysis
    - High level T & E schedule

  9. Identification of the "point of no return"

  10. Risk Assessment and Monte Carlo Simulations


 

Nothing is intrinsically valuable; the value of everything is attributed to it, assigned to it from outside the thing itself, by people.

John Barth (1956)

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Atom1

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Guidelines for New Product Evaluations

Table of Contents                   

1.0  Executive Summary

1.2    Critical Success Factors
1.2    Market Definition
1.3    Project Rationale
1.4    Key Assumptions
1.5    Resource Requirements
1.6    Project objectives
1.7    Opportunities and Risks
1.8    Critical Success Factors (CSF’s)

2.0  New Product / Line extension Description

2.1    Medical Rationale
2.2    Field of therapy: other treatments approaches
2.3    Active ingredient: description, mode of action
2.4    Expected (precise) indications for use in SPC/GPI
2.5    Therapeutic risk / benefit ratio analysis
2.6    Differentiation from other products
2.7    Health economics
2.8    Availability
2.9    Commercial Rationale

3.0  NEW PRODUCT STATUS / REQUIREMENTS

3.1    Legal Status/ Intellectual Property
3.2    Pharmaceutical Development
3.3    Clinical Development
3.4    Regulatory Situation
3.5    Materials Management
3.6    Manufacturing
3.7    Cost of Goods

4.0  PRODUCT ACQUISITION

4.1    Product Owner
4.2    Contractual Arrangements

5.0  DETAILED MARKET ANALYSIS

5.1    Market Definition
5.2    Definition of Competition
5.3    Quantitative Market Analysis
5.4    Qualitative Market analysis
5.5    Major Competitor Evaluation
5.6    Analysis of New product launches

6.0  SURPRISE-FREE MARKET EXTRAPOLATION

6.1    Assumptions
6.2    Market Projections

7.0    ENVIRONMENTAL OVERVIEW & PROJECTIONS
7.1    Political / Governmental
7.2    Cultural Habits
7.3    New Competition
7.4    Other

8.0  NEW PRODUCT SALES & EXPENSE FORECAST
8.1    Set of Assumptions
8.2    Product  Strategy
8.3    Adjusted Market Projections
8.4    Product Projection
8.5    Other Data

9.0  ECONOMIC EVALUATION

9.1    Product Income Statement (P.I.S.)
9.2    Financial Analysis

10.0 PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS

10.1    Accelerators / Decelerators
10.2    Critical Success Factors & Contingency Plan
10.3    Decision Criteria

 

 

 

 

Moerser1

 

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Tablets1

 

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Molecule 5

 

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Sales growth

 

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Monte Carlo