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Blue Bar 2

The Place to get World-class Marketing, Forecasting and Management Expertise

New Product Forecasting & Modeling Seminar


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This 2 day Program is designed to briefly review traditional statistical Forecasting Approaches (20 % of the time) and then focuses on cutting edge New Product Forecasting Methods and Techniques


Key Learning Objectives for this course are:

  1. Brief re-cap of basic forecasting techniques
  2. How to build "robust" new product forecasting models
  3. How to generate and "pressure test" new product forecast models
  4. Understanding the interrelationship of all variables in a new product forecast model
  5. How to avoid the "10 cardinal sins" in new product forecasting



Review of traditional statistical forecasting Techniques

  • Time series techniques and time series decomposition
  • Simple and exponential moving averages
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Regression techniques (linear and non-linear)
  • Correlation techniques
  • Multi variate regression techniques

Popular New Product forecasting Models
We provide an in-depth review and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of popular now product forecasting approaches / models

  1. The basic epidemiological approach (incidence and prevalence based models for "acute" diseases
  2. The dynamic patient flow approcach (HIV, Cancer etc)
  3. The therapy class approach
  4. The therapy day approach
  5. The composit market model
  6. "Head to head" models
  7. Mixed models
  8. Share stealing integrated model
  9. Bass diffusion models
  10. Product life cycle indexing and projection approach


8 bill small

Marketing & Business Concepts in the Context of New Product Forecasting

  1. Data set required for a robust forecast model
  2. Phase of development and the impact on the probability of success to achieve the "Target Product profile" (TPP)
  3. Cost of goods and the impact on the profitability (Value / NPV)
  4. Sales Force Cost a key driver of profitability
  5. Approaches to estimate promotional effectiveness (bang for the buck test)
  6. Criteria to select analogue products
  7. Triangulation of data sets
  8. Understanding generic erosion / decay curves
  9. Understanding synergy and cannibalization
  10. Understanding the concept of "diminishing returns"


Who should attend this course?


This seminar is designed for:
Forecasting Analysts, Forecasting Managers, Product Managers, Marketing Managers, New Product Managers, Financial managers and Consultants.

This course is designed for everybody in the healthcare industry who needs expertise in the forecasting arena.



For more information, please contact us at Tel: 908-238-9276